EMBA Management Science Course
2005
Professor Peter Bell
 

OBJECTIVES
The objective of these sessions is to introduce you to the use of Management Science/Operational Research (MS/OR) as a competitive weapon: we shall examine the ways that globally competitive corporations are using MS/OR to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage.
 

REQUIRED TEXT
Management Science/Operations Research: A Strategic Perspective, by Peter C. Bell, published by SouthWestern College Publishing, Cincinnati, Ohio, 1999.
e-SSENTIAL STATISTICS for BUSINESS, by Peter C. Bell (hypertext)
 

SESSION 1
Topics:
  1. INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND MODELS
  2. DECISION MAKING TECHNOLOGY
  3. RECOGNIZING AND COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY
  
Read:
  1. Text: Chapter 1 (omit pp. 13-14) and Chapter 2 (omit pp. 29-32) including "Bombardier" and "Sainsbury"
  2. Read the article from the Boston Globe at http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2004/06/27/operation_everything/
  3. Check out the www.scienceofbetter.org website
  4. Text: Chapter 3 up to page 51.
  
Case: Professional Media, Inc., (p. 38)  
Assignment: With the case (page 39)  
Case: Freemark Abbey Winery (Harvard)  
Assignment: Develop an action plan for Mr. Jaeger.
 		  

SESSION 2
Topics:
  1. STRUCTURING COMPLEX RISKY SITUATIONS
  2. SENSITIVITY AND CONTINGENCY ANALYSES
  3. ANALYSING AND MANAGING RISK
  
Read: Text: Chapter 3 pp 51-53 and Chapter 5 pp 163-171  
Case: BriLux: The FOT-320 Decision (Ivey)  
Assignment:
  1. Ignoring the ranges given for many of the values, should Brilux go ahead with R&D on the FOT-320?
  2. Does the uncertainty in many of the numbers change your decision?
     
  

SESSION 3
Topic:
  1. INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS
  2. ESTIMATION AND FORECASTING
  3. USING HARD DATA IN DECISION MAKING
  
Read: e-SSENTIAL ch. 1, 2, 3 and 4.  
Assignment: This class is about data and decision-making. Review a recent decision issue (either from your place of work or from the www ) and identify some data that influenced the decision. Come to class prepared to share this data with the class (either with the data on an overhead or in PowerPoint). The raw data is more important than any analysis that was done using the data.  
Case: Firestone Canada, Inc. (Ivey)  
Assignment:
  1. What are the probabilities that the insurance company will have to make refunds in the cities for which data is provided (i.e., London, Toronto, Vancouver)?
  2. Do the snowfall distributions fit normal distributions?
  3. What is the expected value of the program to the consumer buying a snow tire in these cities?
  4. Should Firestone go ahead with this program?
     
  

SESSION 4
Topics:
  1. MODELLING RELATIONSHIPS FROM DATA
  2. REGRESSION
  
Read: e-SSENTIAL Ch. 7 and 8  
Case: Mutual Fund Statistics (To be distributed separately)  
Assignment:
  1. Please read the articles in the two links below:

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/netgains/2003-05-01-r-squared_x.htm

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/waggon/2003-04-24-int-funds_x.htm
     
  2. There are two PDF files in eZone that are short marketing summaries of two mutual funds, that have particular investment objectives. Also in eZone is an Excel file with monthly return data for these two funds and the S&P 500. Use this data to evaluate the strategy of the two funds -- are they achieving their goals with respect to the S&P 500?
  
Case: Brent-Harbridge Developments (text p. 77, data on disk in book)  
Assignment: At end of the case.
 		  

SESSION 5
Topics: SIMULTANEOUS DECISION PROBLEMS  
Read: Text: Chapter 4 (pp. 93-128). Omit the section on LINDO (p. 110-113).  
Case: Red Brand Canners (p. 130)  
Assignment: With the case (p 131).  
Case: Mars Inc.:  On-line procurement (Ivey)  
Assignment:
  1. Construct a model that Mars might use to operate its online procurement auction.
  2. What business issues does this type of procurement raise?
  

SESSION 6
Topics:
  1. NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN PRICING AND REVENUE MANAGEMENT
  2. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
  
Read:
  1. Text: Chapter 7: Try the pricing exercises on page 335-336.
  2. “Optimum Dynamic Pricing Changing the Face of Competition,” Bell, P. C. & S. Staples (1996) Business Quarterly, 61 (Autumn), 40-47.
  
Case: Four Star Motorsports (Ivey)  
Assignment: In what ways is this application similar to, and different from, the major RM application areas such as airlines, hotels, rental cars?

Consider the 155/65R13 tires only;

1. If Sprongl wanted to maximize revenues, what prices should he set?
2. What is the revenue difference between a fixed price and a variable price plan?
3. How should Sprongl react when he knows how many tires he sold in the first demand period?
4. If you were Frank Sprongl, would you go ahead with RM pricing?		  
Case: National Car Rental (p. 365)  
Assignment:
  1. What are National’s options?
  2. What do you see as the major issues behind an RM turnaround?
     
  

SESSION 7
  In-class final examination.
Project presentations.