Joshua Foster

• Rawski, S. R.; Djurdjevic, E.; Soderberg, A. T.; Foster, J. F., (Forthcoming), "The Devil is in the Details: Sexual Harassment e-Training Design Choices and Perceived Messenger Integrity", Journal of Business Ethics
  Abstract: While training design choices seem amoral, they interact to determine training (in)effectiveness, potentially harming/benefiting trainees and organizations. These moral implications intensify when training is administered at scale (e.g., e-training) and focuses on social issues like sexual harassment (hereafter, SH). In fact, research on SH training shows it can elicit trainees’ gender-based biases against content messengers. We suggest that one such bias, resulting from messenger gender-occupation incongruence and influencing training effectiveness, is lowered perceptions of the messenger’s integrity. We also investigate whether rich media will increase or decrease this perceived integrity penalty. Using an excerpt from real SH e-training and a sample [N = 210] consistent with the targeted training audience, we conducted a 2 × 2 × 2 relative comparison experiment (messenger gender x messenger occupation x media richness) and tested a moderated mediation model of the interactive effects of messenger gender-occupation incongruence and media richness on trainees’ perceptions of messenger integrity and training outcomes. Results suggest that trainees’ perceptions of messenger integrity decrease when the messenger’s gender is incongruent with their occupation, leading to worse outcomes in text-based training. These effects, however, are mitigated by increased media richness, providing support for media richness theory. Implications for researchers and practitioners are discussed.

  Link(s) to publication:

  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-023-05479-w

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10551-023-05479-w

• Foster, J. F., 2022, "Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Secret Reserve Prices in Auctions", Economics Letters, November 220(110843)
  Abstract: HighlightsSemi-nonparametric Estimation of Secret Reserve Prices in AuctionsThis letter proposes an estimation method for the distribution of unobservable secret seller reserve prices in auctions. Within the symmetric independent private values model, I construct a two stage estimate via the semi-nonparametric quasi maximum likelihood density estimator developed by Gallant and Nychka (1987). I then use Monte Carlo experiments to demonstrate its performance in relatively small samples. A discussion on applying this method to structurally similar identification problems is provided.

  Link(s) to publication:

  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3978861

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110843

• Foster, J. F.; Haley, M. R., 2022, "Charity auctions as assets: Theory and simulations of fundraising risk management in mean-variance space", Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, October 83
  Abstract: This paper demonstrates how the risk over auction revenue at fundraising events can be managed with modern portfolio theory. Within the independent private values (IPV) framework, it is shown that auction mechanisms offer charities an inherent mean-variance tradeoff over revenue when contributions produce a public good benefit among bidders. This allows the fundraiser to construct a “portfolio” of auction mechanisms for their event so as to manage auction revenue outcomes according to the charity's risk preferences. Simulations provide support for the empirical prominence of the second-price winner-pay (i.e. English) auction, as this is often the portfolio's most heavily weighted mechanism under reasonable risk preferences.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101319

• Rawski, S. R.; Foster, J. F.; Bailenson, J., 2022, "Sexual Harassment Bystander Training Effectiveness: Experimentally Comparing 2D Video to Virtual Reality Practice", Technology, Mind and Behavior, August 3(2)
  Abstract: Sexual harassment (hereafter, SH) is a dysfunctional workplace behavior, resulting in negative outcomes for individuals and organizations. Since #MeToo, companies have been innovating to increase the effectiveness of SH training by incorporating new content (e.g., bystander intervention skills) and new technology (e.g., virtual reality, hereafter VR). However, research has yet to determine the best practices or the effectiveness of these new innovations. The current study hypothesizes that SH bystander intervention training will be more effective when VR practice scenarios are used rather than 2D video practice scenarios. We argue that the increased presence (i.e., the perception that people and places in a virtual simulation are real) afforded by VR should better replicate bystander experiences in real SH situations, thereby allowing trainees to develop bystander skills in a more realistic practice experience than 2D video provides. We experimentally test our hypothesis in a laboratory setting (N = 100). Our results show that the VR practice condition differed from the 2D video condition by increasing trainees’ intentions to engage in indirect, non-confrontational, and widely applicable interventions (e.g., intervene by removing the target from the situation, approach the target to offer support later). However, our manipulation showed a negative effect on practice quantity (i.e., those in the VR condition explored fewer response options) and no effect on other operationalizations of training effectiveness (e.g., motivation to learn, knowledge, attitudes toward the training, intentions to directly confront the harasser, and intentions to formally report the harassment). Implications, limitations and directions for future research are discussed.

  Link(s) to publication:

  https://stanfordvr.com/pubs/2022/sexual-harassment-bystander-training-effectiveness-experimentally-comparing-2d-video-to-virtual-reality-practice/

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/tmb0000074

• Foster, J. F.; Haley, M. R., 2022, "Charity Auctions as Assets: All-Pay vs. Winner-Pay Mechanisms in Mean-Variance Space", Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, March 83: 101319 - 101319.
  Abstract: This paper demonstrates how the risk over auction revenue at fundraising events can be managed with modern portfolio theory. Within the independent private values (IPV) framework, it is shown that auction mechanisms offer charities an inherent mean-variance tradeoff over revenue when contributions produce a public good benefit among bidders. This allows the fundraiser to construct a "portfolio" of auction mechanisms for their event so as to manage auction revenue outcomes according to the charity's risk preferences. Simulations provide support for the empirical prominence of the second-price winner-pay (i.e. English) auction, as this is often the portfolio's most heavily weighted mechanism under reasonable risk preferences.

  Link(s) to publication:

  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3507096

  http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3507096

• Foster, J. F., 2022, "How Rating Mechanisms Shape User Search, Quality Inference and Engagement in Online Platforms: Experimental Evidence", Journal of Business Research, March 142: 791 - 807.
  Abstract: This paper experimentally tests three rating mechanisms on their ability to reduce the asymmetric information between users on the quality of content they evaluate in online platforms. Using a controlled laboratory environment, exogenously imposed variation in content quality and user preferences allows for the construction of a structural model over user search, inference, selection and engagement in the presence of a given rating mechanism. The results of this study suggest that increasing the granularity of the signals available to users increases their ability to make inferences into the quality of content, which causes improvements in user welfare. The experimental data directly revealed that a five-point likert scale rating mechanism improved user welfare by 10.8% over a single ‘like’ button, and counterfactual analysis from the structural model indirectly revealed it improved welfare by 16.2% over providing no rating mechanism at all. User engagement also increased with the granularity of the rating mechanism, which further aided in the reduction of the asymmetric information.

  Link(s) to publication:

  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0148296321009437

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.12.029

• Cotti, C.; Engelhardt, B.; Foster, J. F.; Nesson, E.; Niekamp, P., 2021, "The relationship between in‐person voting and COVID‐19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary", Contemporary Economic Policy, October 39(4): 760 - 777.
  Abstract: On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due to fewer polling locations. We use county-level variation in voting patterns and weekly county-level COVID test data to examine whether in-person voting increased COVID-19 cases. We find a statistically significant association between in-person voting density and the spread of COVID-19 2–3 weeks after the election. In our main results, a 10% increase in in-person voters per polling location is associated with an 18.4% increase in the COVID-19 positive test rate 2–3 weeks later.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/coep.12519

• Foster, J. F., 2020, "Loss aversion and sunk cost sensitivity in all-pay auctions for charity: Theory and experiments", Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, February 84: 101486 - 101486.
  Abstract: This paper theoretically and experimentally studies the role of two behavioral biases in all-pay auctions for charity. The theory is developed to predict the effect of loss aversion in the first-price all-pay auction and sunk cost sensitivity in the war of attrition. Using controlled laboratory experiments, auction treatments are designed to test for the presence of these biases. In support of the theory, the results indicate that revenues in incremental bidding mechanisms such as the war of attrition rely on bidders who are sunk cost sensitive. It is shown that this behavioral response can be curbed significantly with a commitment device. Likewise, the results of the experimental first-price all-pay auctions find evidence of loss aversion, which reduces bidders’ average bid. These findings help explain the inconsistencies in revenues from previous all-pay auction studies and indicate a mechanism preference based on the distribution of these behavioral characteristics.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2019.101486

• Foster, J. F., 2019, "Thank you for being a friend: The roles of strong and weak social network ties in attracting backers to crowdfunded campaigns", Information Economics and Policy, December 49: 100832 - 100832.
  Abstract: This paper uses daily panel data to study the effects that entrepreneurs’ social networks have on the success of their projects seeking capital from a potentially large group of individual investors (i.e. crowdfunding). Much of the literature to date demonstrates both theoretically and empirically that the benefit of large social networks accrues at the beginning of the crowdfunding campaign and are commonly the initial contributions that the project receives. We find this is consistent with unsuccessful campaigns, however, among successful campaigns many of the benefits of large online social networks occur only after the project has met its funding goal. In particular, we find that entrepreneurs with relatively large online social networks receive a statistically significantly larger number of backers only after the project is successfully funded. It is hypothesized this result is due to the composition of strong and weak ties in the entrepreneur’s social network. Importantly, when a project reaches its funding goal a positive signal of its quality is sent to those in the entrepreneur’s social network and motivates the relatively large group of weak ties in it to contribute. As a result, it puts into question the value that strong ties can have in aiding entrepreneurs in reaching their funding goal.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.infoecopol.2019.100832

• Foster, J. F.; Deck, C.; Farmer, A., 2019, "Behavioral demand effects when buyers anticipate inventory shortages", European Journal Of Operational Research, July 276(1): 217 - 234.
  Abstract: Firms often worry about how buyers will react when there is an inventory shortage, but the anticipation of facing a shortage may also impact buyer behavior. In this paper we use a combination of theoretical modeling, computational methods, and laboratory experiments to understand buyers’ search behavior in markets where there is potential for either a costly or costless inventory shortage. When inventory shortages are costly to buyers we find their equilibrium purchasing strategy generates a newsvendor problem among the firms. In turn, experimental data suggests buyer behavior can be explained by prospect theory better than by standard assumptions of fully rational expected utility maximizing agents, indicating that potential inventory shortages generate loss aversion among buyers, and there is systematic mis-identification of the probability with which they will be able to procure an item. Using computational methods, we find firms are able to extract more surplus from behavioral buyers via higher prices than would be predicted by the standard model. On the other hand, when inventory shortages are not costly to buyers the effect of behavioral biases on the part of buyers is not relevant. But in this case there can be a benefit to reducing inventory via a reduction in price competition.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2019.01.001

• Foster, J. F., 2018, "Wars of Attrition with Endogenously Determined Budget Constraints", B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, July 18(2)
  Abstract: This paper models a war of attrition where participants first choose contest investment levels that act as a constraint for how long they can compete. To include a measure of the resource’s transferability to other uses (e.g. other contests), expenditures are a convex combination of investment decisions and their ‘bid’ in the contest. It is shown in the symmetric equilibrium that participants use a mixed strategy for their resource investments and plan to exhaust those resources in the contest. Implications of an investment constraint on equilibrium strategies in a structured, tournament-style sequence of contests are also explored, where it is shown that increasing the number of contests in the tournament does not necessarily increase participants’ investments in expectation. These modifications to the standard model allow for important insights into a variety of pre-calculated and budgeted all-pay contests.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejte-2016-0197

• Deck, C.; Foster, J. F.; Song, H., 2015, "Defense against an opportunistic challenger: Theory and experiments", European Journal of Operational Research, April 242(2): 501 - 513.
  Abstract: This paper considers a contest setting in which a challenger chooses between one of two contests to enter after observing the level of defense at each. Despite the challenger’s chance of success being determined by a proportional contest success function, the defenders effectively find themselves in an all-pay auction that largely dissipates the value of the defended resources because the challenger will target the weaker defender. However, if the defenders form a protective alliance then their expected profits increase despite the fact that a successful challenge is theoretically more likely, given the overall reduction in defense. Controlled laboratory experiments designed to test the model’s predictions are also reported. Observed behavior is generally consistent with the comparative static predictions although challengers exhibit the familiar overbidding pattern. Defenders appear to anticipate this reaction and adjust their behavior accordingly.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.10.009

• Foster, J. F., 2014, "Putting social preferences to work: Can revealed preferences predict real effort provision?", Journal Of Economic Psychology, December 45: 128 - 140.
  Abstract: This paper presents a model of real effort provision in conjunction with rational social preference theory to predict how individuals exert effort to replace an exogenously determined “state of the world” with a preferred social outcome. Binary dictator games and real effort tasks are used to examine whether individuals exert effort in a manner that is consistent with their revealed preferences. The analysis of controlled laboratory experiments suggest that while individuals’ effort provisions are generally consistent with the theory, those who reveal relatively pro-social preferences fail to procure their “preferred” outcomes too frequently when the state of the world is highly inequitable in their favor. Consideration is given to alternative theories, namely ego depletion and cognitive dissonance, as potential explanations of social outcomes. There is evidence to suggest that dictators, on average, experience ego depletion which leads to a reduction in pro-social behavior through time.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2014.08.004

• Cotti, C. D.; Foster, J. F.; Haley, M. R.; Rawski, S. R., , "Duluth vs. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy: A Natural Field Experiment on Intimate Partner Violence Diversion Programs", Journal Of Experimental Psychology-Applied, January 26(2): 384 - 395.
  Abstract: We used data from a 3-year natural field experiment to study rates of recidivism in 2 types of diversion programs designed to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV) among heterosexual partners. In one program (Duluth), efforts are focused on protecting women from male aggression through a psychoeducational program, regardless of the offender’s sex. In the other program (cognitive behavioral therapy [CBT]), efforts are focused on improving intrahousehold behaviors and communication skills through counseling. Our experimental results found that the IPV recidivism rate, measured as reconvictions for IPV, was 11 percentage points higher for offenders randomly assigned to a Duluth treatment program (14 percentage points higher among males). This outcome is statistically and practically significant, suggesting that the Duluth approach corresponds to meaningfully higher recidivism rates compared with CBT. In an attempt to explain the observed difference of IPV recidivism between these programs, we discuss theories for plausible psychological, sociological, psychophysiological, and neurological mechanisms responsible for this outcome.

  Link(s) to publication:

  http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/xap0000249

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