Instant Impact – The case for action in uncertain times

Uncertainty has a way of slowing organizations down. When the future feels unclear, many leaders tend to hedge their bets – delaying big moves, making cautious commitments, and staying flexible until the path forward is more certain.

But today, with disruption constant and clarity elusive, many organizations no longer have the luxury of hitting pause. This is especially true when it comes to climate change and its growing impact on global business. In this context, uncertainty isn’t temporary, it’s persistent. And waiting to act can become a costly gamble.

This is the challenge Ivey PhD candidate Valen Boyd addresses in her research. Identifying a gap in how we understand executive decision-making under sustained uncertainty, her work asks a timely question: how do organizations make major investments when uncertainty remains high – and waiting is no longer an option?

Under the guidance of Tima Bansal, Ivey Professor of Sustainability and Strategy and leading Canadian sustainability scholar, Boyd and Bansal examined this dilemma through a two-year engaged scholarship project with a major Canadian home insurance company.

Facing a surge in roof claims driven by extreme weather, the company considered whether to invest in more resilient materials for future repairs rather than continuing with conventional replacements. The logic was clear, but the investment was substantial, the payoff uncertain, and internal resistance predictable. Why absorb higher costs today for benefits that may take years to materialize – or may never materialize at all?

Many organizations might have used that uncertainty as a reason to delay. Instead, this company found a way to move forward.

Rather than absorbing the full cost upfront, it identified operational innovations that reduced claims expenses elsewhere in the business. Those savings were then redeployed to fund more resilient roof repairs. In doing so, the firm was able to invest in climate adaptation without raising premiums or taking an immediate performance hit.

What emerges from Boyd’s study is a different way of thinking about leadership under persistent uncertainty. The question isn’t how to eliminate risk, it’s how to keep moving despite it.

By rethinking established practices, challenging business as usual, and uncovering operational efficiencies, organizations can create the space to invest in resilience – and move forward even when the forecast remains unclear.