The end of wait-and-see leadership

For many leaders, the defining challenge of today’s business environment isn’t change itself, it’s making decisions while the ground is still shifting beneath them. And when each day seems to bring a new “unprecedented” event, waiting for more certainty – more data, more context, another signal – can feel like the natural and responsible choice.

And yet, it’s a luxury most leaders can’t afford. Business doesn’t pause; budgets still need to be met, resources allocated, and teams need direction – arguably more than ever.

So how do leaders make sound decisions when the path ahead remains unclear?

For Adam Fremeth, Associate Professor of Business, Economics and Public Policy at Ivey Business School, the answer isn’t to wait for certainty – it’s to prepare for uncertainty.

“Over the last six months, a lot of what we’ve seen has been: we’re going to allow more information to come in and wait for something to happen,” said Fremeth. “Sit on your hands. And that’s just not an approach that’s going to be successful anymore.”

The guidance is straightforward in principle, but difficult in practice. In a climate of constant uncertainty, “don’t sit on your hands” is easier said than done. To bridge that gap, Fremeth outlines five ways leaders can move from waiting to acting with strategic foresight.

1.      Start with the decision at hand

When the external environment feels unstable, it is easy for leaders to feel like they need to keep an eye on everything at once: tariffs, supply chains, interest rates, AI, regulation, customer behaviour, competition, geopolitics. The list can quickly become overwhelming.

That’s why Fremeth encourages leaders to begin with a focal issue: the specific decision, risk, or opportunity the organization is trying to understand.

The purpose of strategic foresight, he explains, is not to map every possible future. It is to create a structured way of thinking about the conditions that could affect a specific strategic issue.

“What is it that you’re seeking to accomplish?” said Fremeth. “What is that focal issue that understanding different states of the world is going to be helpful on?”

These questions help leaders move from general anxiety to practical inquiry. Instead of asking, “What is going to happen?” they can ask, “What do we need to understand in order to make this decision well?”

2.      Narrow to the uncertainties that matter most

Once the focal issue is clear, leaders can now focus on the external forces most likely to shape it.

Fremeth describes these as “uncertainty levers:” variables that could move in different directions and meaningfully change the organization’s context. These might include trade policy, customer preferences, access to capital, technology adoption, regulatory change, or talent availability.

“If you are a firm that’s operating internationally, obviously this is going to matter for you,” said Fremeth, referring to the difference between a world of greater protectionism and a world of freer trade.

The key is to narrow the field.

In practice, Fremeth often works with organizations to identify and isolate a small set – roughly half a dozen – of the uncertainties that matter most. That narrowing is what makes the work usable, rather than overwhelming.

3.      Build plausible futures, not predictions

Strategic foresight is sometimes mistaken for prediction or forecasts. But Fremeth is clear that the purpose is not to create a crystal ball – it is to prepare for a range of plausible futures.

By combining the uncertainty levers that matter most, leaders can construct a small set of scenarios that describe how conditions might evolve. These do not need to be elaborate; they need to be useful. Each one should help leaders ask a simple question: what would success require if this were the reality?

The goal is not to choose the future that will happen. It is to understand how the strategy performs under different conditions.

“What structured way could we think about uncertainty that allows us to be a bit more confident and comfortable with what the future may bring?” said Fremeth.

That preparation matters. When leaders have already worked through possible futures, they are less likely to freeze when conditions shift. Instead, they have considered where the strategy is strong, where it is exposed, and what contingencies may be needed.

4.      Use information to inform decisions, not delay them

Artificial intelligence can help organizations scan markets, synthesize perspectives, compare forecasts, and surface signals across sectors or geographies.

But more information does not automatically lead to better decisions. In fact, it can do the opposite – encouraging leaders to keep searching long after it’s useful.

“The rabbit holes get deeper and deeper,” said Fremeth.

AI can widen the aperture, but it cannot replace good judgment. Leaders still need to decide which signals matter, which assumptions require testing, and when they have enough information to act.

The real question, then, is not whether more information is available – as it almost always is – but whether it would materially change the decision at hand.

5.      Make strategy a shared practice

Fremeth argues that strategy is often treated as the domain of senior leaders, but it truly only works when it is understood and acted on across the organization.

“Every member of an organization has a hand in the strategy,” he said.

While senior leaders set direction, strategy is shaped in the execution: middle leaders translate priorities, teams bring them to life, and those closest to customers, operations, and markets often see signals first.

That is where approaches like scenario planning become useful – not as a forecasting exercise, but as a way to create a shared language for uncertainty. It clarifies not only what the strategy is, but the conditions under which it may need to adapt.

In that sense, strategy becomes less of an announcement and more of a practice – embedded in everyday decisions about where to allocate resources, how to set priorities, what to respond to, and what to ignore.

From wait-and-see to readiness

The end of wait-and-see leadership does not mean acting recklessly. It means building the habits and decision practices that help organizations move with more confidence when certainty is unavailable.

For Fremeth, that confidence comes from preparation.

“The more prepared you are for running into that possibility, the more confident you could be with what that contingency could look like,” he said.

In that context, business leaders looking to act decisively must ask themselves a different question. It’s no longer about when things will become clear enough to act.

It’s this: what can we do now to be ready?

Adam Fremeth is an Associate Professor of Business, Economics, and Public Policy at the Ivey Business School. He also serves as Associate Director of the Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre. His research examines how organizations navigate complex markets and make high-stakes, long-term decisions under uncertainty.