On April 16, 2026, pop star Meghan Trainor shocked fans by cancelling her entire North American ‘Get It Girl’ tour. Weeks later, the Pussycat Dolls made a similar announcement, cancelling the North American leg of their world tour. Despite citing different reasons for the cancellations, fans and industry observers drew the same conclusion: blue dot fever.
Named after the blue dots on Ticketmaster seating maps that indicate unsold seats, blue dot fever refers to a series of cancelled tours that have been linked to slow ticket sales.
Some have argued that inflation and rising ticket prices are to blame for the phenomenon. But Kyle Maclean, Ivey Associate Professor of Management Science, suggests the reality may be more complicated. Blue dot fever, he argues, may be less of an emerging crisis and more of a misdiagnosis for a decades-old challenge.
“Tour cancellations aren’t new,” said Maclean. “What’s new is the label. Once we started calling it ‘blue dot fever,’ every cancelled tour suddenly looked like evidence that it’s spreading.”
The danger of connecting the dots
Maclean says the reaction to blue dot fever reflects a common human tendency: our desire to find patterns when faced with uncertainty. When unusual events occur close together – especially high-profile ones – we naturally search for a broader explanation.
And, once a memorable label enters the conversation, that tendency only intensifies.
After "blue dot fever" took hold, every empty seat map became another piece of evidence that seemed to confirm the theory, reinforcing the perception that something bigger was happening.
Yet, while Maclean remains skeptical that blue dot fever is real, he says the phenomenon points to a much broader challenge for anyone selling cultural products: predicting what people will value.
The challenge of predicting demand
For decades, researchers have grappled with the seemingly impossible task of predicting the success of cultural products. They have tested everything from star power and marketing budgets to genre, release timing, and critical reviews. Yet no formula has consistently cracked the code.
"Screenwriter William Goldman famously said that when it comes to deciding which movies audiences will love, 'nobody knows anything,'" said Maclean.
Recent film hits continue to prove his point. Maclean points to the 2026 indie horror film Obsession as a clear example, which grossed an astonishing US$403 million worldwide on a production budget of just US$750,000.
"You can spend $200 million on a movie and it completely bombs," he said. "Or you can spend $750,000 and create a global hit. The reality is that cultural products are inherently unpredictable because human tastes are unpredictable. No algorithm today, or even tomorrow, will change that."
That same unpredictability extends to live entertainment. Lagging ticket sales don't necessarily mean something is fundamentally wrong with the market. They may simply reflect the challenge of predicting demand.
How lucky is success?
Complicating matters further, Maclean says success in cultural industries is also shaped by luck. Not the kind of luck you find in a four-leaf clover, but by unpredictable factors that influence outcomes without being reliably repeatable.
“In class, I like to use the example of a hockey player who has a great playoff series and is then given a long-term contract based on that performance,” said Maclean. “The playoffs are just one small snapshot of a player’s abilities, yet we can end up making a major, long-term decision based on it.”
The same logic applies in entertainment. An artist may benefit from a moment of cultural momentum, a viral trend, or shifting audience preferences. But those conditions rarely last.
Recognizing the role of luck, Maclean argues, can help leaders avoid mistaking short-term success or failure for a lasting trend.
Think in probabilities – not certainties
For leaders, Maclean says the biggest mistake is treating a handful of outcomes as proof of a broader trend. Whether it's a cancelled concert tour, a blockbuster film, or a viral hit, isolated successes and failures rarely tell the whole story. Rather than jumping to conclusions based on a single outcome, leaders should think in probabilities, not certainties.
To put probabilistic thinking into practice, Maclean recommends two approaches:
1. Plan for multiple outcomes. Rather than relying on a single forecast, consider the possible ways an audience, market, or competitor might respond, and then prepare accordingly.
2. Think in portfolios. Instead of judging success based on one product or project, evaluate performance across a broader portfolio, recognizing that some bets will exceed, some will succeed, and others will fall short.
“When you embrace probabilistic thinking, you realize nothing is guaranteed,” said Maclean. “Once you accept that, uncertainty becomes less intimidating, and you’re much better positioned to respond when things don’t go as planned.”
Kyle Maclean is an Associate Professor at the Ivey Business School. His research examines the application of revenue management techniques in the live entertainment industry, exploring the factors that influence the success of entertainment products and inform operational allocation and pricing decisions.
