The Race to Electrify: Building a Resilient Energy Future for Canada

"Electricity demand in Ontario is projected to rise by 75% by 2050—doubling Canada-wide. Yet most utility plans still fall short of what's needed to get there." [1]

Canada's energy system is entering a pivotal decade. Electrification, which previously might have seemed like a far-off goal, has become a current priority in the energy sector. Driven by climate commitments, industrial decarbonization, and shifting consumer behaviour, Canada's electricity needs are set to grow steeply. The Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre projects that to meet future demand, Canada must more than triple its power generation capacity, construct over 23,000 km of high-voltage transmission, and deploy extensive energy storage. The cumulative cost? More than $1.1 trillion by 2050.[2] This aligns closely with the Canadian Climate Institute's projections for net-zero readiness.[7]

This isn't only about infrastructure. At its core, Canada's electrification journey will test the resilience of its systems, regulatory frameworks, and leadership capacity to plan under pressure. Leaders throughout the system will be called upon to drive this transformation forward, employing a mindset that ensures we have an energy system that can meet the needs for generations to come. 

A Surge in Demand: Electrification's Escalating Curve

The Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre's June 2024 analysis underscores the scale of the demand spike ahead. Electrification of transportation, heating, and industry will require 12–25% more electricity by 2030.

Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) forecasts a 75% increase in demand by 2050—a revision upward from earlier estimates due to rapid growth in sectors like EV battery manufacturing and clean industrial production. Yet utility build-out plans remain misaligned, with some lagging behind the necessary infrastructure spend required to meet new demand. Others, however, have taken a lead including municipal utilities like Hydro Ottawa which intends to spend $1.2 billion over five years in new capital investment, with 55% of the funding earmarked to meet surging demand and new consumer technologies. [3]

National context matters. Forecasts from the Canada Energy Regulator similarly estimate electricity demand will rise 62% by 2050 even under "current measures" scenarios.[8] The Ivey Centre highlights this planning gap as a core risk to Canada's net-zero ambitions, especially as clean electrification underpins decarbonization across every sector of the economy.[2]

Infrastructure at the Breaking Point

Canada's starting point is strong—over 80% of electricity is already generated from non-emitting sources. However, scaling that to meet the electrification challenge is another matter. In addition, much of the existing infrastructure requires upgrading and refurbishment to meet the growing demands on the system. The sector faces multiple headwinds:

Permitting Delays

The Centre's research consistently cites regulatory complexity as a critical barrier, particularly in provinces like Ontario and B.C. Executives surveyed in 2024 identified provincial regulation as the top obstacle to infrastructure investment.[4] The C.D. Howe Institute further notes that current permitting timelines are incompatible with major resource development.[9]

Policy Fragmentation

A lack of harmonized electrification policies across provinces risks skewed outcomes, with nuclear and storage investment progressing but transmission and distribution left behind.[2]

Investment Bottlenecks

While investor sentiment is strong for nuclear, energy storage, and smart grid technologies, it is weaker for transmission and distribution—the very components that enable electrification at scale. This misalignment threatens to become a choke point.[2]

Ontario-specific Ivey briefs add detail to this national picture. A 2025 Centre analysis of Ontario's hybrid electricity market raised concerns about coordination failures in generation and transmission planning, while another report questioned the reliability of long-range demand forecasts.[5]

Resilience as the New Competitive Advantage

"There's considerable change on the technology side, the regulatory and policy side, and also in terms of customer needs. And some of that is proving disruptive to existing business models."
— Guy Holburn, Ivey Business School[6]

Canada's energy transition must not only be clean but resilient.
For infrastructure, this means planning and building electrical grids that can withstand climate-related weather events such as floods, wildfires, and ice storms. For institutions, it means being adaptive in the face of evolving markets and technologies.

According to the Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre, the energy sector is entering a period of stress-testing, with extreme weather and high-load scenarios becoming more frequent. Physical upgrades are critical, but so are operational capabilities: advanced grid controls, demand-response systems, and regional interconnections that allow for flexibility and recovery.

Resilience is also necessary at the organizational level.

"This is high-level thinking about where your organization is going to be heading and how you're going to get there."
— Adam Fremeth, Ivey Business School[6]

Firms that anticipate volatility, evaluate varying states of the world, and think systemically will be best positioned to thrive.

Collaboration is Crucial to Success

Electrification is a pan-Canadian challenge, but Canada's electricity system remains fragmented. Interprovincial grid connections are limited, and regulatory mandates vary widely. The Ivey Centre points to this fragmentation as a root cause of inefficiency—arguing that coordinated policy and permitting reform are prerequisites to unlocking the necessary investment.[2]

Cross-sector partnerships will also be essential. Much of the required infrastructure will cross Indigenous lands, and meaningful engagement is both a legal necessity and an opportunity to create lasting partnerships. Similarly, utilities must collaborate with industries, municipalities, and emerging energy tech firms to share knowledge, spread risk, and align timelines.

Internally, organizational departments need to be aligned on goals and purpose in their daily operations.

"They could be in HR or strategy or finance... but the key is that they support the direction of where their firm may be going."
— Adam Fremeth, Ivey Business School [6]

The Leadership Canada Needs by 2030

To deliver on its electrification goals, Canada must build not only technical capacity, but also intellectual capacity. That includes:

• Strategic foresight: Leaders need to work across 10–20 year horizons, aligning investment, policy, and talent to anticipated need.
• Regulatory fluency: Navigating and, where possible, shaping policy environments that affect project timing and cost.
• Systems-focused thinking: Understanding how generation, storage, transmission, and demand-side technologies interact—and planning accordingly.

The Ivey Centre's research repeatedly emphasizes that regulatory predictability and coordinated planning are just as important as capital.

What executives can do now:

• Pressure-test infrastructure timelines against 2035 targets
• Build internal teams with a growth mindset
• Prioritize cross-sector collaborations that are attuned to frontier technologies

With electricity central to Canada's climate strategy, missteps in grid development will have cascading consequences for housing, transportation, and industrial growth.

In short, Canada's electrification future is not guaranteed. But with foresight, collaboration, and executive alignment, it can be built—at scale, at speed, and with resilience.

We’re looking at solving some of the biggest challenges our country faces for the next 20, 30 years."
— Adam Fremeth, Ivey Business School [6]

Footnotes:

1. IESO Annual Planning Outlook 2023
2. Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre, "Electrification and Investment in Electricity Infrastructure" (June 2024)
3. Hydro Ottawa, "Understanding  Hydro Ottawa’s 2026-2030 investment plan" (June 2025)
4. Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre, "The Investment Climate for Canada’s Energy Sector" (July 2020)
5. Ivey Energy Policy and Management Centre Briefs:
   1. "How Confident Should We Be in Ontario’s Electricity Demand Forecasts?" (Nov 2024)
   2. "The Hidden $1.1 Billion Cost of Electricity in Ontario" (Dec 2024) 
6. Ivey Business School Energy Sector Strategic Leadership Accelerator (2025)
7. Canadian Climate Institute, "The Big Switch: Powering Canada’s Net-Zero Future" (2023)
8. Canada Energy Regulator, "Canada’s Energy Future 2023"
9. C.D. Howe Institute, "Smoothing the Path: How Canada Can Make Faster Major-Project Decisions" (2023)

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