The forces reshaping business are converging in 2026. In this forecast, eight Ivey experts outline the developments leaders need to see coming and the implications for the year ahead.
It's time to prepare for an AI market correction
Julian Birkinshaw | Dean
Historians will note that 2025 was the peak of the AI boom. The “big four” spent around $400 billion on AI infrastructure, nearly doubling the year before. Nvidia alone reported $32 billion in profits on $57 billion in the most recent quarter, with a market value exceeding Germany’s GDP. Meanwhile, the top seven tech stocks now account for 35 per cent of the S&P 500.
Most observers agree we are well into bubble territory. As a recent Financial Times article by Ruchir Sharma showed, stocks are overvalued and companies are overinvested and overleveraged. Predicting when the bubble will burst is a mug’s game, but I will play it anyway: my bet is 2026.
My more daring prediction is that OpenAI will be the trigger.
Despite bringing us ChatGPT, OpenAI is expected to lose roughly $20 billion in 2025 on $10 billion in sales, with massive future spending financed by partners like Nvidia, AMD, Oracle, and AWS. Unlike the big four, however, OpenAI has a single, money-losing business. I don’t see how this ends well; my hunch is acquisition, likely in 2026.
Why leaders should pay attention
What does a bursting of the AI bubble mean for those of us outside the tech sector? Pension plans and other investments will take a hit, and those heavily exposed to tech may want to diversify. There will be fewer tech jobs, but in most other respects things will carry on much as before, as the build-out in AI infrastructure will ultimately benefit consumers and business users.
Despite political backlash, firms will quietly press ahead on sustainability
Tima Bansal | Professor, Sustainability & Strategy
In 2026, sustainability – and its related terminology – will remain a political flashpoint. Yet, most companies will stay the course, driven by two converging pressures.
First, climate risks will escalate: insurers will continue to withdraw coverage because of material vulnerabilities, and companies will continue to protect assets and build redundancy to protect physical assets. Second, geopolitical volatility – tariffs, trade wars, and supply-chain disruptions – will continue to expose fragility of global dependencies and single-source suppliers.
As a result, firms will continue to quietly strengthen sustainability in practice, such as diversifying supply chains and strengthening local and regional operations. These actions, however, will be framed less in sustainable expressions – like “ESG” – and more as efforts in resilience and risk management.
Sustainability, therefore, will remain central to business strategy in 2026. Not because of rhetoric or regulation, but because it has become inseparable from how firms manage risk and protect long-term value.
Why leaders should pay attention
Businesses should treat 2026 as a year to strengthen their resilience infrastructure – localize supply chains, prepare for future disclosure demands, and hard-wire climate risk into operations. Even as sustainability becomes politicized, firms that invest quietly and consistently in resilience will outperform those waiting for regulatory clarity.
Free trade is out. Managed interdependence is in.
Andreas Schotter | Endowed BMO Professor of International Business
In 2026, trade will look less like liberalization and more like managed interdependence. Access will be conditional, negotiated, and audited.
For Canadian firms, trade outcomes in 2026 will be determined not by markets alone, but by how effectively they navigate three forces: North American renegotiation, the U.S.–China rivalry, and Europe’s expanding regulatory reach. The six-year USMCA/CUSMA review will reopen rules of origin, auto, agriculture, and procurement; the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will shift from reporting to cost in 2026, pricing emissions into inputs; and the U.S.–China rivalry will continue to widen export controls and subsidies.
The most likely outcome of these combined forces is more trade protection than in the past, but it will be applied selectively on strategic sectors – rather than across the whole economy. This shift will likely be framed as national security, supply-chain resilience, or climate policy.
Trade advantages this year will depend on proof of origin and emissions. The downside: Tighter rules and potential retaliation. The upside: Carve-outs and trusted-supplier lanes for documented low-carbon firms.
Why leaders should pay attention
Canada has talent, clean power, and credibility. What we must build are stronger commercialization pathways and faster diffusion of AI into mid-market firms through procurement, interoperable data standards, and sector-led collaboration. Canadian firms that innovate with AI in practical ways for execution – to manage trade data, test tariff exposure, and adjust supply chains quickly – will come out ahead.
2026 will redefine how marketers know their customers
June Cotte | Professor, Marketing
For 2026, I see two important trends. First, the marketing landscape continues to fracture. Media proliferation means it is more challenging than ever to reach consumers with promotional efforts. Personalization can cut through the clutter, yet it risks crossing privacy lines – creating a persistent tension for marketers. As a result, they may increasingly turn to contextual data over personal data. Knowing someone’s job title, for example, may matter less than knowing it’s raining where they are. In these moments, real-time context can be a stronger signal of relevance than static personal details.
Second, marketers will continue to shift towards understanding and using generative AI tools. For example, there is a new emergence of “synthetic consumers,” that is, AI-generated consumers, based on proprietary marketing data. These consumers can give “customer” insights at scale and at low cost – without infringing on consumer privacy.
Why leaders should pay attention
As marketers, our job is to understand the customer. As we move into 2026, technology will bring both advantages and trade-offs here – particularly with the use of AI to create synthetic consumers. One concern that stands out, raised by Roland Rust and others, is that if more marketers rely on synthetic customer data to train and inform models, we risk creating an “average of the average” consumer. In this scenario, as generative AI learns from customers created by earlier AI models, predictions and decisions could become seriously flawed.
Prepare for stablecoin to go mainstream
Hubert Pun | Taylor/Mingay Chair Professor of Management Science
For decades, payments have depended on layered intermediaries such as banks, credit card networks, and payment processors, each adding cost, delay, and friction. This makes cross-border transactions and supply chain financing slow and costly. But now a new foundation for fast, low-cost cross-border settlement is emerging: stablecoin.
And markets worldwide are accelerating efforts to operationalize it.
In 2024, Europe’s implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) positioned stablecoin as a regulated payment instrument (e.g., credit card) rather than speculative securities (e.g., stock). The U.S. is moving toward a federal stablecoin framework (e.g., GENIUS Act in July 2025). In Canada, federal stablecoin frameworks are actively advancing, with the Bank of Canada signaling increased engagement in digital money infrastructure. A CAD-backed stablecoin is essential. Dependence on USD-pegged stablecoins ties Canada more closely to U.S. monetary policy, making digital currency sovereignty a strategic imperative.
These rapid regulatory advancements have provided legitimacy to stablecoin and will drive much broader adoption in 2026.
Why leaders should pay attention
As regulations mature, stablecoins will move beyond crypto trading to enable faster, cheaper, and simpler cross-border business transactions in 2026. This shift will significantly reduce friction in global commerce and require businesses to adapt accordingly. At the same time, traditional intermediaries, such as banks and credit card companies, will be forced to seriously reconsider their roles as they confront the risks of disruption from this alternate form of payment.
The EV market will diverge - and Canada must choose its lane
Gal Raz | Associate Professor, Operations Management, Sustainability
By 2026, electric vehicles will no longer be viewed a future bet but a global baseline, pushing Canada to decide whether it becomes a leader in electrification – or watches the market move ahead without it.
By the end of 2025, EV sales made up over a quarter of car sales globally, with China crossing the 50 per cent mark of new vehicle sales being electric, cementing EVs as the default rather than the alternative. Norway has also come closer to being fully electric, with its sales of EVs reaching 96 per cent of car sales, demonstrating that once charging infrastructure, pricing parity, and policy alignment are in place, demand becomes self-sustaining. In these markets, the EV transition is effectively complete.
Canada, by contrast, risks stepping off the adoption curve just as it was gaining momentum. After years of major supply-side investment – over $50 billion in minerals, batteries, and manufacturing – the removal of consumer rebates in 2025 has sharply slowed EV demand.
To be clear: consumer interest is there, hybrid growth proves it, but without incentives, policy alignment, and charging infrastructure, Canada won’t sustain a domestic EV market.
Why leaders should pay attention
The EV transition is no longer just an environmental issue; it’s an economic one. As global supply chains align around electrification, weak domestic demand puts Canada’s manufacturing investments at risk and makes the country less attractive for building, innovating, and scaling. With Chinese competitors accelerating, leaders who dismiss EVs as temporary risk misreading where global markets, and customers, are heading.
In 2026, energy politics will be defined by wires, not pipes
Brandon Schaufele | Associate Professor, Business, Economics and Public Policy
Canadian energy politics is about to pivot. After a year of pipeline battles dominating headlines, 2026 will be the year electricity infrastructure takes centre stage.
The pipeline debate is cooling. Oil prices have softened, dropping from over $70 to $55 per barrel through 2025, while major capacity upgrades on Enbridge’s Mainline system and Trans Mountain are adding 350,000 barrels per day. Together, these factors ease the immediate pressure for new oil infrastructure.
Electricity tells a different story. Demand is surging as data centres proliferate and electrification accelerates. Provincial grids are straining, and the infrastructure needed to keep pace faces familiar challenges: regulatory delays, community opposition, and staggering costs.
The affordability crisis only compounds these challenges.
Provincial governments are responding with major infrastructure plans, but execution remains uncertain. Building transmission lines is proving as contentious as any pipeline project ever was.
The irony? We've simply traded one infrastructure crisis for another.
Why leaders should pay attention
As provinces race to build new generation, transmission capacity, and expand the power system, businesses and households should brace for continued rate increases – a politically sensitive issue that will shape policy debates throughout the year. Remember, the lowest-cost energy investment is the demand you eliminate.
Canada's major projects moment has arrived
Guy Holburn | Professor, Business, Economics and Public Policy
2026 will be a decisive year for unlocking Canada’s vast natural resource wealth through development of major infrastructure projects.
In 2025, the federal government under Mark Carney made resource development a central element of its national economic competitiveness, growth, and sovereignty strategy – aiming to attract billions of dollars of new private investment and to cement Canada as a trusted, global energy and natural resource superpower. Expectations of the new Major Projects Office (MPO), which the government has tasked with fast-tracking permitting processes and facilitating financial options, are high: can it deliver meaningful progress on the 11 identified priority projects, get shovels in the ground, and send a signal to investors that Canada is truly open for business?
While the federal government has rolled up its sleeves and is determined to knock down unwieldy regulatory and financial barriers, cooperation from constitutionally powerful stakeholders – notably, Indigenous groups and provincial governments – will be essential for achieving long-term investment.
2026 could be the year for innovative grand bargains that align diverse stakeholder interests around the government’s bold ambition. The triumvirate of Carney, Farrell, and Hodgson will need as much political and diplomatic savvy as their considerable business experience to bring multi-stakeholder negotiations to fruition.
Why leaders should pay attention
Visible progress on major infrastructure projects could provide a much needed confidence boost to the business community in what is shaping up to be a tough year for Canada’s economy. Trade negotiations with the United States and continued geo-political uncertainty are likely to act as a drag on manufacturing sector investment and on household spending. Watch out for positive news announcements coming from the electricity, mining, oil and gas, pipeline, and transportation sectors as the MPO gears into action.
