Canada's automotive sector is navigating one of its most consequential periods in decades. Trade uncertainty, evolving industrial policy, and the transition toward electrification are reshaping where investment flows, how supply chains evolve, and where future automotive production will take root.
Those challenges framed Driving Forward: Canada's Auto Strategy and EV Transition, hosted by the Lawrence National Centre for Policy and Management at Ivey Business School on May 29. Across discussions involving manufacturers, investors, policymakers, and researchers, participants agreed that Canada's manufacturing strengths remain a significant advantage. Sustaining that advantage, however, will require more than production capacity. It will depend on reliable market access, policy certainty, investment, innovation, and the widespread adoption of emerging mobility technologies.
Protecting Canada's manufacturing ecosystem
The workshop began where Canada's automotive strategy is being tested most immediately: manufacturing. With Section 232 tariffs already disrupting North American supply chains and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review now underway, speakers emphasized that because automotive investments are planned seven to ten years before vehicles reach assembly lines, today's policy decisions will shape Canada's manufacturing footprint for years to come.
In his keynote address, Flavio Volpe, President of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association (APMA), framed the current environment as one of the industry's most significant challenges since the 2008–09 financial crisis. That sense of urgency carried through the discussion that followed, where David Adams (Global Automakers of Canada), Brian Kingston (Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association), and Brendan Sweeney (Pacific Manufacturing Association of Canada), in a panel moderated by The Globe and Mail's Petrina Gentile, examined what those challenges mean for Canada's manufacturing future.
Trade provided the clearest illustration of the stakes ahead. Approximately 90 per cent of Canadian-built vehicles are exported to the United States, with 1.1 million vehicles entering the U.S. market in 2025 despite tariffs, generating an estimated $5 billion in tariff costs. Against that backdrop, Kingston argued that preserving stable North American market access will be critical throughout the CUSMA review: "There is no Canadian auto industry without U.S. market access."
The discussion, however, extended beyond market access alone. Speakers argued that Canada's automotive advantage rests on an integrated industrial ecosystem that includes suppliers, engineering expertise, skilled trades, research capacity, critical minerals, and battery production. Strengthening that ecosystem, they suggested, will play an equally important role in attracting future production mandates and investment.
Canada's place in a global EV market
If the manufacturing discussions focused on protecting Canada's industrial base, a conversation between James Bradford, Founder and President of Vivid Capital Management, and Romel Mostafa, Professor and Director of the Lawrence National Centre, explored what makes that industrial base attractive to long-term investment.
Drawing on Vivid's experience investing across electrification technologies, Bradford argued that North American trade uncertainty should be viewed within a much larger global transition. Falling battery and solar costs, improving energy efficiency, and expanding demand for electric vehicles continue to reshape transportation and energy markets worldwide, regardless of short-term political cycles.
From that perspective, Canada's advantages remain substantial. Bradford pointed to the country's critical mineral deposits, growing processing capacity, clean electricity, and manufacturing expertise as enduring strengths within the global EV supply chain. The greater challenge, he argued, is execution. Investments in refining and processing capacity, together with greater government engagement on later-stage mining projects, suggest Canada's industrial strategy is beginning to evolve from announcing opportunities toward enabling them.
Bradford cautioned that catching up will take time. Countries such as Australia moved earlier to strengthen downstream critical mineral supply chains, while Canada is only beginning to build the refining and processing capacity needed to capture greater value domestically. For investors, the opportunity increasingly depends on how effectively Canada can connect its resource advantages with long-term industrial development.
Building confidence in the next phase of adoption
Building vehicles is only one part of the transition. Discussions on charging infrastructure and consumer readiness turned to the conditions needed for manufacturing investment to translate into sustained market adoption, featuring Daniel Carr (Alectra), Cara Clairman (Plug'n Drive), Carter Li (SWTCH), Maureen Shuell (Electric Mobility Canada), and moderated by Gal Raz, Professor and LNC Faculty Fellow.
Policy consistency emerged as one of the strongest themes. Shuell noted that uncertainty surrounding the federal purchase incentive delayed purchasing decisions, while sales increased by nearly 75 per cent following its reinstatement. Clairman similarly argued that British Columbia and Quebec demonstrate how coordinated incentives and zero-emission vehicle mandates improve both vehicle availability and consumer confidence.
Infrastructure proved equally important. While charging reliability remains a concern, Clairman argued that more persistent barriers exist in multi-unit residential buildings and rural communities. Li highlighted how advances in energy management technology are making charging feasible in existing condominium buildings without major electrical upgrades, while Carr described electric vehicles as "batteries on wheels," arguing that managed charging can strengthen — not simply burden — the electricity grid.
Together, these discussions reinforced a broader point: manufacturing capacity alone will not determine Canada's success. Consumer confidence, reliable infrastructure, and modern electricity systems all shape how quickly innovation moves from factory floors into everyday use.
Connecting evidence with action
Earlier in the day, Ivey’s Associate Dean of Research Rob Klassen described electrification as a systems challenge linking manufacturing, electricity systems, consumer behaviour, and public policy.
Building on that perspective, doctoral and postdoctoral researchers Vikash Kumar, Yiru Lang, and Sergii Nevmerzhytskyi showcased how Ivey is examining the transition from multiple angles. Their research explored EV incentive design, the political and regional factors shaping consumer adoption, and survey findings on how Canadian automotive suppliers are navigating the dual challenges of tariffs and electrification.
Those ideas carried into the workshop's facilitated breakout discussions, where participants from across the automotive ecosystem — including manufacturers, investors, policymakers, utilities, research organizations, and academia — built on the earlier panels to identify shared priorities and consider where policy and industry action could have the greatest impact.
Across the discussions, participants identified opportunities to improve charging interoperability and reliability, strengthen domestic innovation through critical minerals, intellectual property, and workforce development, and support the long-term conditions needed for investment and growth. Consumer-focused groups emphasized education, creative financing, and the development of a stronger used EV market, while trade discussions highlighted opportunities within Canada's control, including reducing interprovincial barriers and strengthening North American supply chains.
Closing the workshop, Karim Bardeesy, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Industry, situated many of these discussions within the federal government's broader Automotive Strategy, released earlier this year. Against the backdrop of Canada's CUSMA review, he argued that the strategy places renewed emphasis on attracting investment, strengthening domestic capacity across mining, battery processing, and vehicle production, expanding charging infrastructure, and supporting workers through the industry's transition.
Collectively, the discussions suggested that manufacturing remains the foundation of Canada's automotive advantage, but sustaining that advantage will increasingly depend on how effectively the country connects investment, infrastructure, policy, and consumer adoption across the automotive ecosystem.