Canadian grain and oilseed producers are facing mounting pressures from volatile commodity prices, rising input costs, and escalating trade tensions. In the Lawrence National Centre’s newest policy brief titled Harvesting Uncertainty: Building Resilience Against U.S. Tariffs & Global Market Disruption, MBA ’23 graduate Ramsey Andary, under the supervision of Professor and Director, Romel Mostafa, examines how proposed U.S. tariffs—and retaliatory measures from China—could significantly undermine the resilience of one of Canada’s most globally competitive sectors.
The brief underscores the vulnerability of Canadian agriculture to geopolitical crossfire between the U.S. and China, which together account for the majority of crop exports. It outlines a three-pronged strategy to safeguard the sector: strengthening diplomacy with U.S. stakeholders to prevent trade escalation, accelerating export diversification beyond North America and China, and enhancing Canada’s structural competitiveness through investment in infrastructure, digital connectivity, and workforce modernization.
Drawing on historical lessons and global precedents, the document emphasizes that effective risk management must go beyond short-term mitigation. Canada requires bold, coordinated policies that position its agricultural sector as resilient, innovative, and globally competitive—capable of weathering geopolitical shocks while sustaining rural economies and food security.
Read the Ivey Impact article featuring the research: Can Canada’s farmers weather a global trade war?
Generous support from the Lawrence Family, Baran Family Foundation, Canada Life Research Fund, and Power Corporation of Canada is gratefully acknowledged.